Alternative Premier League table after 10 matches, based on expected goals

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REALITY?

This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look, after 10 matches

Sometimes the Premier League table lies, especially when the season is just 10 games old.

We all know, for instance, Arsenal are outscoring what has been predicted of them, while Burnley, previous to their current run, were getting unlikely results, according to statistics.

Mesut Ozil celebrates scoring for Arsenal

Mesut Ozil celebrates scoring for Arsenal

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see whether players and clubs are under or over performing.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

Expected goals (xG) is a football statistic that attempts to reveal the precise score of every game using the quality of chances created. If a team has a high xG but low goals scored they were wasteful, whereas a low xG but high goals scored suggests they are performing far better in front of goal than they should be.

Using expected goals, which you can learn more about here, and data from Understat, we present how the table should look after 10 games, according to the stats experts.


20. Burnley – Real position = 15
Real points = 8 | Expected points = 6.79

19. Fulham – Real position = 18
Real points = 5 | Expected points = 7.62

18. Huddersfield Town – Real position = 20
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 7.71

17. Newcastle United – Real position = 19
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 8.09

Newcastle are still yet to win this season

Newcastle are still yet to win this season

16. Brighton and Hove Albion – Real position = 11
Real points = 14 | Expected points = 8.95

15. Cardiff City – Real position = 17
Real points = 5 | Expected points = 10.10

14. West Ham – Real position = 13
Real points = 8 | Expected points = 10.49

13. Southampton – Real position = 16
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 11.36

12. Crystal Palace – Real position = 14
Real points = 8 | Expected points = 12.66

11. Everton – Real position = 9

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 13.14

Everton manager Marco Silva speaks to striker Cenk Tosun

Everton manager Marco Silva speaks to striker Cenk Tosun

10. Leicester City – Real position = 12

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 13.17

9. Arsenal – Real position = 4
Real points = 22 | Expected points = 13.81

8. Manchester United – Real position = 8

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 14.15

Paul Pogba and Anthony Martial celebrate

Paul Pogba and Anthony Martial celebrate

7. Watford – Real position = 7
Real points = 19 | Expected points = 16.28

6. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 10
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 16.49

5. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 5
Real points = 21 | Expected points = 17.90

Tottenham have been playing their home games at Wembley this season just as they did last season while White Hart Lane was redeveloped

Tottenham have been playing their home games at Wembley this season just as they did last season while White Hart Lane was redeveloped

4. Bournemouth – Real position = 6

Real points = 20 | Expected points = 19.79

3. Liverpool – Real position = 2
Real points = 26 | Expected points = 21.12

2. Chelsea – Real position = 3
Real points = 24 | Expected points = 21.32

Chelsea are doing well under new boss Maurizio Sarri

Chelsea are doing well under new boss Maurizio Sarri

1. Manchester City – Real position = 1

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 26.49

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